Virginia vs Duke 11/6/2010

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Virginia winning 58% of simulations, and Duke 42% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Virginia commits fewer turnovers in 50% of simulations and they go on to win 71% when they take care of the ball. Duke wins 62% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Keith Payne is averaging 66 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (38% chance) then he helps his team win 72%. Sean Renfree is averaging 279 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (20% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is DUKE +0

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